With a key summit on UK-EU relations approaching, new research from British Future finds that people see Brexit as a failure and want closer EU ties. But voters are undecided about what comes next, with uncertainty about the idea of another referendum, or a return to free movement.
Some 46% would vote to rejoin the EU, while 29% would choose to stay out. But a quarter of the public are undecided and not all of those who choose a side appear firmly committed.
There is popular support for PM Andy Burnham emerging from this autumn’s EU summit with a Youth Mobility Scheme. Some 57% support a reciprocal programme for 18–30-year-olds, with only 12% opposed. Even those opposed to rejoining the EU see youth mobility and exchange schemes as a constructive middle ground for improving UK-EU relations.
Most of the public (56%) would also let the PM go further, supporting a UK-EU relationship that goes beyond Labour’s 2024 manifesto red lines (which rule out the single market, a customs union or freedom of movement for this parliament). Another 10% prefer a closer relationship that did not cross these red lines, while 16% would either keep the status quo or prefer more divergence from the EU.
Research for the new report, Britain and Europe: How close should we get? comprised a nationally representative survey of 3,007 UK adults and focus groups across England and Wales. It identifies five distinct public “tribes” on Europe, from the 22% who are “All In” on rejoining to the 19% who remain “Firmly Out”. The largest group, making up more than four in ten of the public, sit in a moveable middle: open to closer cooperation but unpersuaded on the terms.
Other key findings:
- 57% now see Brexit as “more of a failure than a success” (21% say more of a success) — but this doesn’t translate into a clear mandate for what to do about it.
- Support for practical cooperation — on trade (62%), defence (57%), health (56%), and agriculture (54%) — is consistently higher than support for reopening the Brexit question itself.
- There is real caution about another referendum: just 34% want one “as soon as possible”, while the rest are split between wanting one further off (28%), not at all (21%) or indecision (16% ‘Don’t know’) – reflecting concern that a rerun could reopen old divisions or destabilise UK politics.
- Freedom of movement remains contested: 26% clearly support it as a condition of EU membership, while only 12% voice outright opposition. But most people sit in an undecided middle. Some 4 in 10 would like free trade access to the EU but are sceptical of relaxing immigration rules to achieve this, and 22% answer ‘don’t know’.
- 55% support, in principle, a scaled-up UK-France asylum deal comprising a safe route with robust returns — including majorities of voters considering Labour, Conservative and Reform UK. The report recommends expanding this deal into an EU-wide scheme.
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:
“Andy Burnham has pragmatic permission from voters to seek closer ties with Europe and to strike a deal on youth mobility this autumn. There’s a real public appetite for practical cooperation — tempered with caution about free movement and the idea of another referendum.
“Only one in five people think Brexit has been a success, and voters would like better trade links with the EU. But this isn’t a simple story of a nation that wants to rejoin. The public has some hard questions about trade-offs – on sovereignty, on migration, on how change should be decided – that neither the government nor its opponents have yet answered.
“Politicians on both sides of the Brexit debate need to move beyond their comfort zone refighting the 2016 referendum if they are to persuade the public about the future choices of the decade to come.”
The report identifies challenges for both sides of UK politics. On the right, Reform UK and the Conservatives need to hold together a voter coalition of committed 2016 Leavers and target voters who are considerably more open to closer EU ties. Pro-Europeans cannot assume that regret over Brexit equates to settled support for rejoining. Awareness and engagement among younger voters is notably lower than is often assumed; and public anxieties about free movement have not gone away, though opposition is not monolithic.
Responding to the report Andrew Lewin, Labour MP for Welwyn Hatfield, commented:
“I hope that a Youth Mobility deal between the UK and EU is just weeks away from being agreed. This excellent report confirms there is strong public support and should embolden our government to move at pace in the negotiations this autumn.
“A Youth Mobility agreement would restore opportunities to a generation who were denied them by Brexit. Building on the Erasmus+ scheme, it would also signal that the UK is putting young people at the heart of a new relationship with our closest allies. Finalising a deal should be one of our highest priorities before the end of this year.”
Jake Puddle, report co-author and Research Director at British Future, said:
“Young people are often assumed to be passionately pro-rejoin, yet we find newer voters feel more undecided, disengaged and unaware of the arguments of 2016. The mooted youth mobility scheme is a popular proposal, however – across all age groups – and offers one way to engage younger voices in what the UK-EU relationship could mean for them.”
The report calls for greater government efforts to increase pragmatic cooperation with the EU in this parliament, especially on youth mobility, defence and asylum. It suggests that government ‘Red lines’ could be redrawn with a new mandate in the next parliament, without undoing the Brexit decision itself. And it calls for greater public engagement with the issues of UK-EU relations, including on the key issue of free movement. This should emphasise reciprocal benefits, and the potential to include permissible safeguards such as a work-within-three-months requirement, local registration and limits on out-of-work benefits.
Download a copy of the ‘Britain and Europe: How close should we get?’ report here.
