Reform’s populist pitch derives much of its energy from the ethos that the party is the only one to stand up and talk about how most people really think. The latest wave of the Immigration Attitudes Tracker from British Future and Ipsos, published today (19 Sept) illustrates just how different Reform voters are from median opinion. There is a more dramatic contrast between the Reform vote and general public opinion than is the case for Green Party or Liberal Democrat voters, for example, on the liberal flank of public opinion.
The new research finds that, across a range of tracker questions, Reform voters are outliers – with starkly different views to the average voter and to supporters of other parties. They are the only group to oppose resettlement schemes like Homes for Ukraine and the prospect of using them again in response to future crises; the only group where a majority feel immigration is not talked about enough and should be the number one priority for the government; and the only group where a majority feel no sympathy at all for people crossing the Channel.
(* Note that the SNP sample in this survey was less than 100 and so SNP results are indicative)
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future and co-author of the new report, said:
“Reform UK and Nigel Farage provide a political voice for the section of the public with the toughest views on immigration – but to say they speak for the British public on the issue would simply be mistaken. Most people don’t share Nigel Farage’s views and don’t trust him when he talks about immigration.
“Reform voters are outliers on immigration: they think differently to the majority of the public. Winning back their votes is a challenge for the Conservative Party, but a risk too: if you need to reach 40% of the electorate, you can’t just make your pitch to 14%.”
More in Common has also been studying public attitudes to immigration, including people’s views on the recent violent disorder. Jim Blagden of More in Common said:
“Reform’s vote splits into two camps: the first are the disillusioned populists and the second are the radical right.
“Most Reform voters are disillusioned populists. They think that immigration brings more costs than benefits, want overall numbers to come down and are frustrated at what they see as a lack of action by the previous government. But they think that violence against refugees is never justified and that the recent riots are best described as racist thuggery.
“But a significant minority are on the radical right. Specifically, 23% of Reform voters say they are “ashamed that Britain is a multi-ethnic society.” 22% think the police were too harsh on the rioters. And 17% think violent protests outside refugee accommodation are justified.
“The challenge for the Conservatives as they select a new party leader is to win back the more mainstream Reform voters who want lower immigration without indulging the more fringe politics of the radical right.”
The British Future/Ipsos tracker, which has followed public opinion on immigration since 2015, finds Reform UK is trusted to have the right policies on immigration by 34% of the overall public and distrusted by 52% (net -18). That is significantly ahead of the Conservatives (trusted by 24% and distrusted by 67%, net -43), as are Labour (trusted by 36% of the public on immigration and distrusted by 50%, net -14) and the Lib Dems (trusted by 29% and distrusted by 46%, net -17).
One third of the public (33%) say they trust Reform leader Nigel Farage when he talks about immigration, while 55% say they don’t trust Farage on the issue (net -22). Prime Minister Keir Starmer is trusted by 35% of the public on immigration and distrusted by 51% (net -16). Each of the Conservative leadership candidates is distrusted on immigration by between 57-60% of the general public and trusted by 17-18%, giving them a negative net trust rating of between -40 and -42.
Reform is trusted to have the right policies on immigration by half of 2024 Conservative voters (49%) but distrusted by 38%, demonstrating a dilemma for the future Tory leadership: how to win back Reform voters without repelling current Conservatives or others. Two-thirds of Labour voters (65%) distrust Reform on immigration, while around a quarter (23%) are attracted by Reform’s message. Seven in ten Lib Dem voters (69%) don’t trust Reform on immigration (22% do trust them).
Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:
“Immigration is a key issue for Reform voters – and for those Conservative voters from 2019 who switched to the party at the last election. They were very unhappy with the way the last Conservative Government handled the issue, and remain very dissatisfied with the way the new Labour government is dealing with it too. However they are the most negative – and most focused – group on the topic among a polarised public where there a range of other views that place more emphasis on control and the need for immigration in certain sectors as much as deterrence to get numbers down.”
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