The European elections will be one of the biggest political events of 2014. Some will treat the May 2014 elections as a guide to the general election taking place next year. But are they?
The rise and rise of the outsider election: What will the 2014 European election mean for British politics?, explores this question in detail.
Using new research and analysis from British Future, we argue that the European elections are ‘outsider elections’ with a smaller and very different electorate more likely to favour parties without Westminster representation.
As a result, the European elections have developed a distinct ‘Brussels’ party system, and have become a poorer indicator of the general elections in the UK to follow.