“The race for representation: how ethnic diversity became the ‘new normal’ in British politics”, a 26-page report from British Future, analyses the chances of victory of the ethnic minority candidates standing in the 2015 election and makes a series of projections based on different electoral scenarios.
Key findings include:
-A record number of ethnic minority MPs will be elected in 2015, with 40+ ethnic minority MPs likely to be elected. If each seat is won by the candidate who is currently favourite, 44 non-white MPs will be elected in May, a 60% increase on the record 27 ethnic minority MPs elected in 2010.
-While the possible range for ethnic minority MPs is between 36 and 47 MPs elected across the full range of conceivable election outcomes, our central projection is that between 40-45 ethnic minority MPs is the likely outcome, especially if neither party wins an overall majority.