The public is expecting net migration to go up, not down, a new poll finds, when the Office for National Statistics publishes new figures at 9.30am Thursday. But net migration is certain to be much lower than before and is expected to fall by over 250,000.
Only 10% of people in Britain are expecting net migration to be lower than before, while six in ten (58%) think it will increase, according to the new Focaldata research for British Future. Some 28% expect the numbers to remain about the same.
Much of the public also thinks the current rate of net migration is higher than it is, according to the new poll. One in five people (19%) think net migration is over a million, with 5% thinking it is over 5 million. Nearly four in ten (37%) believe net migration is over 750,000. Just 16% correctly estimated that net migration is between 500,001 – 750,000 (The last reported net migration figure, for the year ending June 2024, was 728,000).
Home Office visa statistics already show a fall in inward immigration of over 400,000 and the publication of outward emigration numbers on Thursday, giving total net migration, will confirm a downward trend. This follows a period of record highs: the last whole calendar year reported was 2023, with net migration for the year ending December 2023 at 866,000. Net migration had peaked at 906,000 in the figures for the year ending June 2023, before trending downwards.
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:
“Falling net migration is one of Britain’s best-kept secrets. The new ONS figures will show a dramatic fall, probably by over a quarter of a million, but that will come as a complete surprise to 90% of the public. That’s because our political debate on immigration has failed to keep up with reality.
“Immigration remains high but is much lower than the previous peaks. It will likely fall further. We need a different immigration debate that looks forwards to how we manage the pressures and gains of migration for the economy, infrastructure and public services.”
The new ONS figures for the year ending December 2024, a period that includes the first six months of the new Labour government, largely reflect a decision to keep last-minute migration policy changes from the previous administration. Measures announced in last week’s Immigration White Paper are predicted to reduce numbers further, by around 100,000.
British Future is hosting a webinar, ‘Net migration is coming down – what happens next?‘, on Thursday 22nd May (1-2pm) after the net migration statistics are published. Experts will examine the new figures and what they mean for future immigration policy. You can register here.
Previously published Focaldata research for British Future asked respondents what they would like to happen to immigration numbers. The public is divided, with 50% preferring immigration to be reduced, while 45% say they want numbers to stay the same or increase. You can see the full findings here.
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