New immigration statistics published today by ONS showed net migration at 204,000, a dramatic fall of more than three-quarters since post-Covid highs – but new research suggests the public may not notice.
The Immigration Attitudes Tracker research, published today (27 November) by Ipsos and British Future, finds only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in one year’s time, despite net migration halving last year and continuing to fall. More than twice as many people (38%) expect net migration to increase, with 31% expecting it to remain the same.
Most of the public also thinks net migration increased last year – when in fact numbers halved. The new findings show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Yet the last set of net migration statistics showed that 2024 numbers more than halved to 345,000 from 848,000 a year earlier.
The new report finds that while attitudes to immigration are becoming more polarised, there remains a large group it terms the ‘Balancer Middle’, holding nuanced views and recognising both the pressures and gains that immigration can bring. At the same time it notes the ‘rise of the rejectionists’: a growing, aggrieved and vocal minority who see no positive impacts from immigration to the UK. Asked to rate the impact of immigration on the UK from 0 (negative) to 10 (positive), 16% now give the most negative zero score , up from 7% in June/July 2021. Overall 42% rate immigration’s impact on Britain as 0-4 out of 10 (up 5pts since last year), and 38% score it 6-10 (-2).
Four in ten people (41%) want immigration numbers reduced ‘a lot’, with a further 16% wanting more modest reductions. Just over a third of people (35%) want numbers to stay the same (21%) or increase (15%). People struggle, however, to say what migration for work they would cut – only a minority would reduce migration for study, or indeed for work in most occupations tested in the research, such as doctors, care workers, lorry drivers, restaurant & catering staff or seasonal farm workers.
The public also significantly overestimates the proportion of immigration made up of people seeking asylum. On average, people think asylum makes up one third (33%) of all immigration to the UK, more than work (27%) or study (21%). In fact around 14% of immigration was for asylum in the year ending June 2025. Six times as many people came for work and study in the UK.
This is a problem for the government because asylum is the focus of public disquiet about immigration. Dissatisfaction with how the government is dealing with immigration is at 56% – an increase from 48% in last summer’s tracker post-election (though still lower than the 69% who felt dissatisfied with the Conservative government in the February 2024 tracker). Of those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason given – by 73% of dissatisfied respondents – is that “The government is not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings”. The other top reasons given are “Being too generous to migrants/asylum seekers,” (65%) and “Allowing too many people to claim asylum in Britain” (63%).
The findings illuminate the limitations of an immigration debate focused largely on asylum and on competing promises to reduce net migration numbers, says British Future. Public trust on immigration has been significantly undermined by successive governments making big promises to cut immigration numbers and ‘stop the boats’ but failing to deliver, it says. But if Britain is returning to more ‘normal’ levels of net migration – from the unprecedented peak of 900,000+ in YE June 2023 – the debate needs to keep pace.
Sunder Katwala, Director of the British Future thinktank, said:
“This is another significant drop in net migration, but our research shows this has not cut through to the public, who still think immigration is going up.
“Falling immigration has been the best-kept secret in British politics for too long. Net migration has now dropped by two-thirds in the last year, and by three-quarters since its post-Covid peak. It is time that our immigration debate caught up with reality.
“Some voices will never be satisfied until immigration is net zero – but they can’t claim to speak for most of the public. Attitudes are becoming more polarised, with around one in six now seeing no benefits from immigration at all. But they remain a minority. A much larger share of the public holds more nuanced views.
“With numbers returning to pre-Brexit levels, we need an immigration politics for 2025 and beyond. The government should have more confidence that the public understands the need to manage the pressures and gains of immigration.”
New government proposals on settlement risk being more restrictive than most of the public would choose, the research finds (though there is no consensus for the limit staying at 5 years either). Half (50%) think migrants doing graduate-level jobs should only wait 5 years or less before qualifying for settlement, and 53% think those doing mid-skilled jobs should wait less than 10 years. Regarding the proposed 15-year wait before low-skilled migrants can apply for permanent settlement, only 21% think low-skilled workers should wait more than 10 years (35% think it should stay at 5 years or less).
Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, sad:
“It’s clear that immigration is rising up the public’s agenda, a process that started in 2023 but has accelerated further this year. It is seen as a major source of tension in the UK, and attitudes are now more negative than they have been for some time (although still not quite to the extent they were before the 2016 referendum). Much of this is driven by persistent dissatisfaction with how successive governments are dealing with it, particularly over the issue of small boats crossing the Channel, and asylum numbers take up an overlarge proportion of the public’s mind when thinking about immigration.
“But attitudes towards immigration beyond this show more nuance. Overall, Britons still on balance prioritise a system that delivers control over simply reducing numbers to as low as possible, and across a range of different occupations only a minority want to reduce migration for work. Meanwhile, Reform is increasing its lead over others on the issue, but no party is trusted by the majority. This research demonstrates that even when overall numbers are coming down, the government and other parties all need to do more to engage with the public’s concerns over immigration.”
The new figures and research will be discussed at an online event, ‘The new net migration figures: What next for policy and politics?‘, hosted by British Future on Thursday 27 November (12-1pm) after the net migration statistics are published. Experts, including former Migration Advisory Committee Chair Prof Alan Manning, will examine the new immigration statistics and what they mean for future immigration policy. You can register here.
The report calls for a more constructive, transparent and humane immigration system that can command public confidence in a polarised political climate. It calls for an annual ‘Migration Day’ in Parliament to improve accountability by reporting progress against a clear Immigration Plan. The authors recommend scaling up the UK–France asylum deal to manage Channel crossings, ending the use of asylum hotels by 2026 through quicker decisions and fairer accommodation policies, and creating credible routes to settlement.
The report also urges that the immigration debate recognise legitimate concerns but distinguishes these from prejudice, rejecting retrospective changes to people’s legal status and extremist “remigration” rhetoric. It also recommends renewed national strategies on hate crime and social cohesion. The authors argue that these reforms would, together, help restore trust, uphold decency and rebuild a broader consensus on immigration.
Ipsos surveyed 3,003 adults (18+) across Great Britain, online from 16 June to 2 July 2025. Data are weighted to reflect the population profile. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. This is the latest of 18 waves of research into public attitudes to immigration since 2015.
Read the full report ‘Noise and Nuance: What the public really thinks about immigration’ here.
