President Donald Trump has entered the White House and the world holds its breath as we wait to see what follows – for Ukraine and diplomacy, tariffs and the global economy, and democracy vs. authoritarianism. In the US, the UK, across Europe and beyond, populist voices will be emboldened, hardening political, media and policy discourse, especially about the issue that Trump rode to power: migration. Early Executive Orders signed by Trump, suspending asylum and declaring a national emergency at the southern border, show that his campaign focus on this issue looks unlikely to wane while in power.
Populists like Trump weaponise migration in order to exploit grievances and gain power. In the US election, immigration and border security turned out to be Donald Trump’s best issue and Kamala Harris’s worst. Polling by the progressive group Navigator shows Harris ended her campaign trailing Trump by 20 points on immigration and border security – even though most will oppose his mass deportation plans if it is perceived by voters as cruel and chaotic. In the UK, migration is similarly a top-tier issue, seized upon by populist voices, and in the EU, the issue continues to roil politics and influence election outcomes.
What should advocates of liberal democracy, and balanced immigration policies, do to respond to the populist challenge on migration? Here are some important lessons to be learned from America.
Lesson 1: Leaders must lean into the issue – describe the challenges honestly, propose workable solutions, and produce measurable results.
If voters care about the issue – and they do – you have to engage with the issue, not run away from it. The Biden-Harris Administration got this horribly wrong. They mostly avoided issues of migration and border security in hopes of diminishing its salience. This paved the way for Trump and Republicans to brand Democrats as the party of “open borders” who were encouraging “an invasion.” By the time newly-minted candidate Kamala Harris leaned into the issue forcefully and the Administration brought down the level of southern border arrivals dramatically, it was too late to convince voters.
The good news is that Labour leaned into the issue during the campaign and continues to do so. Now they have to deliver the measurable results – no easy feat in this era of accelerating global migration.
Lesson 2: Most voters are not anti-immigrant or anti-refugee, they are anti-chaos. They want control and compassion.
Citizens want their elected leaders to “mind the store” when it comes to managing immigration. As the Democrats found out in America and Conservatives found out in the UK, failure to do so is politically costly. The “all or nothing” advocates on both ends of the spectrum are outnumbered by the majority of voters who want “both/and” – orderly migration policies that admit immigrants and refugees in a fair and efficient manner AND strict controls that reduce chaos and illegal migration.
Keir Starmer gets it. He scrapped the costly and cruel Rwanda scheme while stepping up removals of asylum seekers whose claims have failed, embodying compassion and controls. But public cynicism and anger on boat arrivals is high. His government needs to translate concern into competence by setting out more clearly what his approach is going to be, why he believes in it, and show he can deliver on what the majority of voters want.
Lesson 3: In government, you have to get the policy right as well as the politics
For three years, President Biden failed to bring down the high levels of irregular border arrivals. Remarkably, in year four of his presidency, his Administration succeeded in doing so by combining and scaling individual elements they had been developing. The keys: cooperation from Mexico and other allies that disrupt smuggling; controls on asylum that undermine the smugglers’ business model; and safe and legal pathways that encourage orderly alternatives to irregular migration. As a result, border arrivals plummeted by 77% in six months. Currently, border numbers are lower than when Trump left office in 2021.
Much to their disappointment, however, Biden and Harris received no credit from voters for having done so. They had lost the political and communications battle so thoroughly that their reputation as incompetent and indifferent overwhelmed actual results. The Labour Government should take notice. The challenge is to get the policy, the narrative and the politics aligned to distinguish solid governance from the simplistic takes and false promises of their opponents. Not easy, and essential.
Lesson 4: Multilateralism matters
Too often, nations debate irregular migration as if it’s a challenge that starts at the receiving country’s borders. In an era of increased global migration, such myopia misreads the nature of the problem and the policy elements needed to manage it. Multilateralism and the hard work of diplomacy are essential components of any effective ‘control and compassion’ policy regime, while unilateral solutions are but a populist fantasy. Slogans don’t produce results – cooperation, controls and compassion do.
Starmer’s Government is prioritising multilateralism as it works to bring irregular migration under better control. Measurable results in bringing down small boat arrivals won’t be possible without deeper levels of cooperation with France, the EU and key source countries of irregular migration.
Lesson 5: We can learn from each other
Britain isn’t America. Two-thirds of Britons see Donald Trump as dangerous, and most don’t want Trumpism here. British society may be increasingly polarised, but not to the same extent as in the US.
As my colleagues here in the UK like to say, this is not a call to complacency but a call to action – to defend shared common ground and resist the rise of divisive populism that is spreading across the US and continental Europe. Britain has the potential to be the last bastion of liberal values against a rising tide of populism sweeping across the US and continental Europe. Keir Starmer needs to shoulder that weight and show global leadership – but he needs to lead by example, by getting things right at home.
Here is one American rooting for Starmer to defuse populism by getting the politics and policy of immigration right. America is a cautionary tale that comes with hints of how to do so. Here’s hoping that the British government succeeds where the Biden-Harris Administration failed, both as a matter of governance and a matter of election results. Centre-left forces in the democratic world are watching closely in hope that you do.
Frank Sharry was lead advisor on immigration policy to the Kamala Harris Presidential campaign, and led US migration NGOs America’s Voice and the National Immigration Forum in Washington DC.
A version of this article first appeared in The Independent
